NFL Free Pick: Vikings vs Bears on Sunday

You know I was very high on Minnesota, and I still am even after the quarterback change. I already had a nice result on their win total, and then they paid off again yesterday. So from my side, nothing about the opener made me want to turn cold on the Vikings.

Actually, the number is the part that stands out to me here.

After I downgraded Minnesota for losing Murray and having to start Wentz, I still get this line to about 3 or 3.5. That matters. When I can make a number that far away from the market, I am usually going to lean into the points instead of trying to be cute. The market has already moved away from the early number, which tells me I am not alone in seeing a little too much respect baked in for Chicago.

Why I am not rushing to trust Chicago

As much as I was happy the Bears cashed our biggest bet of Week 1, the reality is their defense looked abysmal. Carolina is a bad team, and Chicago still needed time to put them away in the 4th quarter. That is not the kind of defensive showing that makes me eager to lay points in a divisional spot.

Caleb Williams had a strong stat line against Carolina, and I am not ignoring that. He handled the opener well enough on the surface. But the next opponent is a different deal entirely, because Minnesota’s defense is a massive step up from what he just saw.

That is where this matchup starts to tilt for me.

Minnesota does not need to be perfect here. They just need to make Chicago work harder for every drive, and I am not sure the Bears defense can create that same kind of comfort on the other side. If you are going to ask me which defense I trust more in a game with a spread hanging in this range, I am not spending long on the answer.

Minnesota’s pressure can change the shape of the day

The Vikings absolutely terrorized Jordan Love with their blitz schemes, and the numbers backed up what the eye test showed. Minnesota blitzed on 78.3% of his dropbacks and finished with a 50% pressure rate in that comeback win over Green Bay. That is not random noise. That is a defense showing up with a plan and executing it.

Caleb is more evasive than Love, so I am not pretending the same exact script will repeat. But evasive does not mean immune. Minnesota’s pressure is still the kind of thing that can speed up a quarterback, change reads, and force a few possessions into something less clean than what Chicago had in the opener.

There is also a reason this matters in a divisional matchup. These teams know each other. The most recent meeting ended 19-17 in Chicago’s favor, so I am already thinking in terms of a tighter margin rather than some easy separation. In spots like that, points matter even more.

I also keep coming back to the earlier matchup note on Williams against the blitz. He was less effective when Minnesota brought that heat before, and that lines up with how I want to bet this side. Chicago can have offensive success and still fail to separate. That is enough for me to stay on the dog.

The read

So here is where I land. I think Minnesota can win outright, and I do not need to force that part of the ticket to make the bet work. If I am getting a number that I make closer to 3 or 3.5, I want the extra points.

The Bears may have grabbed attention in Week 1, but I do not trust that defense yet, and I definitely do not trust it enough to support this number in a divisional matchup against a defense that can get after the quarterback. Finally, that is the edge I want.

253 - 1PM ET VIKINGS +5.5 (spread) at -108, 1 unit.