Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs Browns Preview

I want to buy into this Steelers offense, even if that means taking a little risk early in the season.

That is the angle here. Pittsburgh has already shown us enough to see a pattern, and actually, the pattern is simple. When the conditions are clean, this offense has been willing to push the ball. When the weather and the matchup were rough, it looked much more limited. That matters in a spot like this, because now Pittsburgh gets a divisional road setting where the matchup asks a real question of both sides.

Through the first 3 games, the Steelers have already been tested in a real way. They saw Atlanta, a very good defense. They went on the road to New England in the rain, another very good defense. They also faced Cincinnati, a much improved defense. That is a solid early sample, not just empty numbers. And in 2 of those 3 games, when the weather was clear, they were airing it out. The air yards per attempt were over 9 when the weather was not a factor, and that tells me the plan is not to sit back and hope.

Rodgers is throwing it deep, and he looks good doing it. That is a major change from what we saw under Tomlin last season. It also lines up with what you need here. If you want to beat this Browns defense, you probably need to be willing to stress it vertically. You cannot just live in the short stuff and expect easy answers all night.

Pittsburgh also gave us a real offensive punch in Week 3 against Cincinnati, scoring 30 points. NFL.com noted Rodgers threw two deep touchdowns in the first quarter after failing to complete a deep throw on his first nine attempts through Weeks 1-2. That matters because it shows the ceiling is there, and finally, we saw the aggressive version show up in a meaningful way.

On the other side, I am also fading the Cleveland offense.

The surface-level story is easy. Deshaun Watson has back-to-back game-winning drives, so naturally people want to celebrate the comeback moments. But what is getting ignored is what happened on basically every other possession. Most of the time, he has been putrid. That is the part I care about, because one or two late drives do not erase the rest of the body of work.

His Week 3 win over Green Bay came with some real help from his legs, including 11 carries for 45 yards, and NFL.com noted that the Browns’ success came in a narrow, late-game finish rather than sustained dominance. That is not the same thing as controlling a game offensively. It is not the same thing as being efficient. And it is not the same thing as a passing attack I want to trust against a Pittsburgh defense with playmakers.

There are other warning signs too. Cleveland was outgained in yards per play in Week 2 against Jacksonville, 5.0 to 4.8. Their line did not look good against a weak pass rush, and they already had starting-center injury issues this season. On a short week, that is not the spot I want to be defending in a game where the opponent can create pressure and force mistakes.

Watson also had the lowest CPOE rate of any QB in Week 3, despite the win. That is not something I am rushing to ignore. A couple of clutch drives can hide a lot, but the process still matters.

Then there is the market angle, and it is strong. Home dogs on a winning streak have not been good, and fading them has produced a 31-16 ATS record. That is one more piece pushing in the same direction. Also, first time head coaches on TNF have gone 20-40 ATS, and that is another reason I am comfortable laying it here.

So when I put it all together, I see the Steelers offense in a better spot to keep building, and I see a Cleveland offense that still has way more questions than people want to admit.

I really like this below -3, and I will lay it with Pittsburgh.

Play: Steelers -2.5 at -115, 1 unit