Free NFL Pick: Colts at Steelers Preview

I actually like this spot for Pittsburgh.

We did cash on the Colts last week, and that matters, but it also needs to be said plainly, the first half of that spot was not going well. Indianapolis was getting outgained and outplayed on offense in yards per play and success rate. If Mariota does not get hurt, I believe that one probably goes the other way. So I am not eager to treat that result as some clean sign of progress.

Why Indianapolis is still a tough sell

The bigger issue is simple, the Colts defense has been the weakest unit in this matchup by a wide margin.

They have not shown much ability to stop anybody, and that is the part of the board that stands out most here. When a side has already been hanging around with two wins, you want more proof than that before you start trusting the defense. I am not seeing it yet. The numbers may say these teams are basically even on the line, but the way these rosters are performing does not feel even to me.

Daniel Jones also comes into a spot where the road version of his season has not been especially encouraging. He has had only one road game so far, and that outing was 210 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. That does not force a bet by itself, but it fits the larger picture. If you are asking a quarterback to carry the load in a tricky road environment, I want more confidence than that.

There is also the schedule angle. Indianapolis is on a normal one-week turnaround after its previous Sunday game, while Pittsburgh has had extended rest. That can matter, especially when a home team is already set up well in a familiar building.

Why Pittsburgh makes more sense

Pittsburgh comes in off a tight road loss, so I am not reading too much into the result itself. The more important part is what happens here at home.

The Steelers have shown a major uptick in their home splits, and the home efficiency has been better than the road version. That matters in a spot like this because the matchup sets up in a way where Pittsburgh should be able to lean into its strengths. The offense does not need to be flashy. It just needs to be functional, and Aaron Rodgers has actually been more productive in Sunday games than in his one non-Sunday outing.

That helps here, because the Colts defense is the side of the matchup I trust least. Pittsburgh should be able to create openings against that Anarumo zone, and Rodgers has enough experience to work through it if the pocket holds up even a little. Meanwhile, the Steelers defense should show up and make life uncomfortable for Daniel Jones. That side of the ball feels like the separator.

One more thing stands out, too. Teams on extended rest facing a team off an international game have gone 3-1 ATS all time. It is a small sample, so I am not leaning on it too hard, but it does support the same read I already had from the matchup itself. Pittsburgh has rest, home field, and the more trustworthy defense.

Finally, the market is basically treating this as a toss-up, and I do not agree with that. I would rather lay the small number with the home team that has the clearer path on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Steelers -1.5