Thursday's Top Pick: Patriots @ Bears — Free NFL Pick

Today's free NFL pick is on Patriots @ Bears, and the play is 311 - 8PM ET PATRIOTS +3 at -115 for 1 unit.

Here's the read behind it: *Sent on WED 10/21 - FanDuel has best price! I like the Patriots to simply get a few more stops in what I expect to be an offensive game. Both teams will move the ball, but the total is set pretty correctly IMO, where I see an edge is I only make it NE +2. Chicago's defense has actually been solid lately, but they'll be tested in this game as the Patriots can throw it on this secondary. The NE offensive line is dealing with injuries, but the Bears are not an elite pressure unit. On the other side I do like the Pats defense and how it matches up. They stop the run well, which is the calling card of the Bears' offense; and they have Christian Gonzalez to lock down one half of the field. Caleb Williams in his return last week looked stellar, but his ADOT was very low and a lot was YAC to boost his stats. I want to sell on that performance, especially with how the Bears finished that game by barely hanging on for a win. Vrabel as an underdog of 3 or more has gone 28-14 ATS 67%, including 4-1 ATS with the Pats. Drake Maye has also been far better so far on the road, 12-4 ATS and 9-3 ATS as a road dog

Every free pick is graded in the open the next day and tracked for closing-line value — how our price compares to where the market closes. That's the honest scoreboard, win or lose.

This is one play. Members get the full NFL card every day — plus every other sport — by email and text.