Thursday's Free MLB Pick: Mets vs Yankees

If you're watching this before Mets and Yankees, then you're in luck because I actually like the home side here. The Mets can absolutely show up and make it annoying in a rivalry setting, but I keep coming back to the same thing, the setup is better for New York.

The Yankees are walking in after a 10-3 win over the Rockies, and that matters more than people may want to admit. When a team puts up 10+ runs, the next game is often where the market still catches up late. Favorites after scoring 10+ runs are 158-96, 62%. That is not some tiny angle. That is a real one, and it lines up here.

Why the home side makes sense

New York is also starting a new series at home on a 3+ game win streak, and that angle has been strong too. Teams in that exact spot are 311-197, 61%. Again, you do not need to stretch to make the case. The spot itself is doing the work.

The Yankees are 84-62 and 7-3 in their last 10, so the recent form supports the numbers instead of fighting them. They are also coming off a game where Anthony Volpe homered grand slam in his return to the lineup. MLB pointed out that the Yankees had consecutive games with grand slams from players 25 or younger for the first time, which tells me the lineup has some life in it right now.

The Mets can spoil, but the spot still leans Bronx

I can see the Mets trying to play spoiler a bit here. They enter after back-to-back wins over the Marlins, 9-4 and 8-0, so the box score crowd will point to that and say they are waking up. Fair enough.

But the record is still below .500 at 67-78, and this is their first game of a three-game road set at Yankee Stadium. That is a tougher ask than the recent scores may suggest. There is also Brett Baty, who is expected to be out at least through Sept. 11 with a knee issue. It is one more small thing in a spot where New York already has the clearer statistical case.

Finally, this is where I want to trust the data over the little bit of rivalry noise. The Yankees have the stronger recent form, the better home series angle, and the better post-explosion profile after scoring 10+ runs. The market is not asking for a big price either, so I do not need to overcomplicate it.

I am on Yankees ML -138, 1 unit.