Tuesday MLB Free Pick: Braves vs Pirates

The number is the issue

The Braves have stumbled a bit recently and it's Paul Skenes day for the Pittsburgh Pirates - this seems like it would line up well for the home team, but not so fast.

In a vacuum, I can see why the Pirates would be favored against a much better team.

But a wager is never about the vacuum.

It's about the number sitting in front of you, and I've got to question if the market is charging a premium for Skenes. If so, can it be justified?

When a starter is priced this high, the assumption is that he can carry the full weight of the matchup. Yet the notes here point in the opposite direction. Skenes’ velocity has been dipping quite a bit this season, and that is not something I want to ignore when I am laying a heavy number on Pittsburgh. If the fastball is not quite where it was, then the gap between reputation and actual game-day impact gets smaller.

Skenes is still respected, not untouchable

Skenes has been winless in nine starts since May 12, which is the worst stretch of his MLB career. That does not mean he cannot turn it around tonight. It does mean the market may be leaning a little too hard on the label and not enough on what has actually been happening. He also got roughed up in his last start as well, and the Braves are a top 10 team this season on the road vs righties in wRC+ and OPS.

The deeper you look, the more you see a pitcher who is still dangerous, still capable, but not the kind of arm I want forcing me to pay this kind of tax.

The velocity point matters here too. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted his fastball averaged 96.3 mph in his July 1 start, down from a season average of 97 mph. MLB also reported the four-seam spin rate has slipped from 2,318 on April 1 to 1,987 on July 1, and Baseball Savant has him in the 17th percentile for offspeed pitches this season. Those are not numbers I want to dismiss when the price has already been inflated.

Atlanta is live at this number

There is also a simple betting truth here, if you want the broader angle.

Road dogs above .500 after the midway point of the season are 83-49, 63%, over the last 5 seasons.

That trend does not win by itself, of course. No trend does. But it backs up the same read I already had from the matchup: the Braves are being priced a little too aggressively because of the arm on the other side. When you can grab a team that is actually better, and you are being paid plus money, that is the side I want.

Final read

So no, I am not rushing to fade Skenes out of disrespect. I am doing it because the price is too high.

I’ll gladly jump in on the Braves moneyline at +142 for 1 unit.