MLB Free Pick: Rockies vs Dodgers

Here’s the angle on Rockies at Dodgers. The Dodgers just lost yesterday, and more importantly, they had trouble scoring in that one. That matters tonight.

Because on the surface, a lot of bettors see a strong home team coming off a loss and immediately assume the automatic side. But that is actually not the cleanest way to look at this spot. Over the last 3 seasons, the Dodgers are 68% at home after a loss, but that number alone is not really the edge, since they are usually laying a huge price in those games. The straight-up angle is fine, but the value is not always there.

The better read is the offense itself.

When Los Angeles comes home after a loss in which it scored 3 or less, that is where the run production has shown up. In that same stretch, the Dodgers average just over 6 runs in those games. That is the kind of split that matters here, because yesterday was exactly that kind of night. They lost 4-3, they had 8 hits, and they still only pushed across 3 runs. The runs came in the 1st, 5th, and 6th innings, so this was not a total dead night at the plate, but it still fell short of what you expect from this lineup in this building.

Why this spot can turn quickly

The setup also makes sense from a game-flow standpoint. This series already showed scoring on both sides. The opener was an 8-7 Dodgers win in 11 innings, and Shohei Ohtani drove in four runs in that one. That tells you Los Angeles has already found ways to create offense in this matchup, even if last night was a quieter finish.

I think that matters more than the final score from yesterday. One game where the Dodgers leave a few runs on the table does not really change the bigger picture. A lineup with this kind of baseline production usually responds better than the market expects, especially when the prior game ended with only 3 runs.

LA will also be seeing rookie Gabriel Hughes tonight, in his first ever MLB start. He had one appearance so far against the Giants, but that is a much different offense than this one. Roki Sasaki has also struggled lately so he may need lots of run support tonight. All of this points me to one angle.

908 - 10PM ET DODGERS TEAM TOTAL OVER 5.5 (-120), 1 unit