Saturday MLB Free Pick: Cubs vs Reds

If you’ve been with us for previous seasons, you know I’m not passing on this one. Road favorites after getting shutout have been gold, 109-40 (69%), and this is exactly the kind of spot I want to play again.

The price is not asking much, and the setup actually points in the same direction. Cincinnati has been far too inconsistent to trust in this kind of spot and have failed to keep momentum going for most of the season. The Reds have had flashes, sure, but after impressive wins they tend to let up. That matters even more here because they are also coming off a shutout, and that’s where the bullpen issue really starts to show up.

Why I like the road side

This is not me reaching for a narrative. It’s a spot read that keeps showing value.

The Reds have been one of those teams that can look dangerous in a single game, then fall right back into trouble the next night. That has been part of their season, and the recent form backs it up. Cincinnati entered July 11 below .500 at 41-48, and the overall results have still been uneven, with a 4-6 mark over the last 10 games.

More important than the record is how they have been losing lately. Their bullpen had a 7.06 ERA over a previous 38-game stretch, and that is not the kind of relief group I want facing a team in a bounce-back spot. When a lineup is being asked to overcome that kind of late-inning mess, the margin gets thin fast. For one game, it's fine - for back to back nights I don't see it.

The matchup favors Chicago

There is also a pretty clear reason to lean Cubs here, and it starts with the matchup against Nick Lodolo.

The Cubs have hit Lodolo well as a team, posting a .320 average against him. And Lodolo’s home numbers have been weaker too, with a 5.50 ERA at home.

That matters even more when you layer in the recent form. Lodolo was roughed up in his last scheduled work, allowing seven runs and 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Mets. He is also coming off a scare after being hit by a 107.6 mph comebacker on the left wrist and arm, so even if he is good to go, the recent picture is not exactly clean.

Now compare that to Javier Assad.

Assad has been giving the Cubs solid innings, and Chicago has won his last 5 starts. His June run was pretty steady going 3-0 with a 3.16 ERA in five outings.

That is the side I want. A steadier starter, a lineup that sees the opposing pitcher well, and a home team that has not earned trust in this price range.

Finally, when I put it all together, I land right where the notes point. The Cubs are the better side in this spot, and I’m taking the ML at -118 for 1 unit.