Thursday MLB Pick: Rays vs Blue Jays

I have not played a total in a while, but this one actually stands out to me.

Why this number makes sense

Start with the pitching. This is not a spot where I am looking at two offenses and expecting a ton of fireworks. We have two solid pitchers on the mound, and that is enough to slow the pace down early. When the starters can keep traffic light, the whole game stays manageable for an under.

Ian Seymour gets the start for Tampa Bay, while Shane Bieber is on the other side for Toronto. Bieber’s season line has not been where people normally expect it to be, and the elbow inflammation earlier in the year helps explain some of that. Still, the key point here is not to overreact. It is more about the shape of the matchup, and the fact that this is not a spot where either club should be expecting easy offense.

Day game angle matters here

The day-game angle is part of the read too. Both lineups are weaker during day games.

That matters even more in a game like this because Tampa Bay is in Toronto for a midweek series, so this has the feel of a spot where the energy level can naturally settle in a little lower. These are the kinds of games where offense can feel just a little less sharp, a little less clean, and that is exactly what you want when you are holding an under ticket.

And when I step back and look at the bigger picture, the summer-month under profile is still very strong. These spots are 329-214-25, which comes out to 60.6%. That is the kind of trend that makes me more comfortable when the board gives me a number I can work with.

I think this is a clean under look on a small slate, with two solid pitchers, two lineups that are not ideal in day-game spots, and a total that gives us the hook. So I’ll take UNDER 8.5 at -110 for 1 unit.