Saturday's MLB Pick: Braves vs Orioles

I actually like this spot a lot more than the market probably does.

Baltimore should have won last night, then gave it away in extra innings. That matters. You know my philosophy on these spots, I want the team that screwed up, especially when they are at home and still catching a price that feels usable.

Why I’m leaning Baltimore

The easy read is to stare at the Braves on paper and move on. Sure, Atlanta looks stronger in a vacuum. Nobody is trying to argue otherwise.

But baseball is not played on paper, and over the last month these two teams have been playing very similar ball. That is really the point here. If the gap is not nearly as wide as the brand names suggest, then home field and the bounce-back angle start to carry a lot more weight.

Baltimore also comes in off a game where it had a real chance to control the night, only to lose it late in extra innings. That kind of loss can linger, sure, but it can also sharpen the focus the very next time out. I prefer buying into that response rather than fading it.

And finally, the price matters. And to get the best price on this game I recommend using ProphetX since you can get a free $20 with our code at the bottom of this page.

At -105, you are not paying a premium to back the home side in a spot where the market may be overrating the Braves a touch because of the name on the jersey. I do not need Baltimore to be a juggernaut here. I just need the better situation at the better number.

The pitching setup does not scare me off

The matchup of Young vs Elder is another reason I am comfortable landing on Baltimore.

This does not look like some huge starting pitching mismatch where one side clearly has the edge and the other side needs everything to break right. The previews have this one looking fairly even, and that fits the way I see it too. Brandon Young has been listed around 8-2 with a 3.25 ERA, while Bryce Elder sits 6-6 with a 4.06 ERA. That is enough to tell me neither side should be running away with the number.

Bottom line

This is a decent favorite spot for Baltimore in my book, and the home team is the one I want at a great price.

The bounce-back angle is strong, the pitching matchup looks workable, and the market is giving me a number I can actually play.

Give me Orioles ML at -105, 1 unit.