American League All-Stars Moneyline Pick vs National League

The All-Star Game is basically the one night a year where the betting market has to price in "who decided to show up." Half the fun of handicapping this thing is just cataloging the missing names, and this year both sides have a rough injury report. But when you actually dig into who's left standing, there's a live dog sitting right there at plus money.

Everybody's missing guys

The National League took the bigger pitching hit. Shohei Ohtani's out, and so are Chase Burns, Braxton Ashcraft, Max Meyer, and Jacob Misiorowski, all pulled for rest or injury. Paul Skenes is out too, and you could make a case Zack Wheeler got completely snubbed. That's a lot of frontline NL arms watching from home.

The AL isn't exactly whole either. Nick Kurtz, Aaron Judge, and Byron Buxton are all out of the lineup, which stings for a team that was counting on some thump in the middle of the order. Tarik Skubal, who battled injury for a chunk of the season, didn't make the roster either.

So both rosters look like a shell of what you'd draw up in March. Fine. Let's see who's left.

The lineups actually favor the AL

Strip away the missing names and look at who's actually hitting tonight, and the AL's starting nine grades out better. I've got the AL starters projected for a 136 wRC+ and a .367 wOBA, compared to 132 wRC+ and .361 wOBA for the NL. Not a blowout gap, but real. Four to six points of wOBA is meaningful over a game.

If it were just starters, I'd have the NL at basically even money, with the total sitting around 8.5 runs. Close to a coinflip.

But the bench flips things

Here's where it gets interesting. The reserves are where the NL pulls ahead just a bit. Their bench projects to a 133 wRC+ and .363 wOBA, basically as good as their starters, while the AL bench drops off to 128 wRC+ and .355 wOBA. The NL reserves also grade out better on defense and on the bases.

Once the benches start rotating in, which happens fast in an exhibition game, the NL's overall roster quality takes over. Using reserve lineups alone, I'd make the NL a bigger favorite, something like -115, with the total dipping to around 8 runs.

So where's the number, and where's the value

Add it all up and despite what I've said, my number lands on the NL as modest favorites, around -115. That's tight enough that I'm not chasing either side on the moneyline at those prices.

But sportsbooks aren't always going to price it that close, and if the AL is sitting out there at +116, that's plus money on a team that's essentially a coin flip by my numbers. That's the kind of gap worth betting.

Pick: American League +116 for 1unit